Automotive Industry Trends 2023

Market Monitor

  • Brazil,
  • Canada,
  • China,
  • Czech Republic,
  • Denmark,
  • Finland,
  • France,
  • Germany,
  • Hong Kong,
  • Hungary,
  • India,
  • Indonesia,
  • Ireland,
  • Italy,
  • Japan,
  • Malaysia,
  • Mexico,
  • Netherlands,
  • New Zealand,
  • Norway,
  • Philippines,
  • Poland,
  • Portugal,
  • Singapore,
  • Slovakia,
  • South Korea,
  • Spain,
  • Sweden,
  • Switzerland,
  • Taiwan,
  • Thailand,
  • Turkey,
  • United Arab Emirates,
  • USA,
  • United Kingdom,
  • Vietnam
  • Automotive/Transport

9th November 2023

Pressure on household incomes is weakening demand, although EV sales are gaining momentum

Automotive output is enjoying a surge this year and is expected to increase 10.6% by the end of 2023. Motor vehicle and parts production accelerated during the first half of the year, largely due to an easing of the supply chain disruptions and working through the backlogs of orders.

However, we expect production growth to slow to 2% in 2024, as weaker demand takes hold of the industry, particularly in advanced economies. Persistently high interest rates are weighing on automotive production and sales, as household incomes remain under pressure and financing has become more costly. In addition, once the backlogs of orders are worked through, there will be lower demand for automotive production in 2024 and 2025. Downside risks for the sector are tenaciously high inflation, while component shortages could also add strain to automotive supply chains.

We expect global hybrid and electric vehicle (EV) sales to account for 59% of global light vehicle sales by 2030, up from 10% in 2020. The US Inflation Reduction Act will support EV sales in the US, while in Europe the shift towards electrification is accelerating. In China, the EV transition maintains a strong momentum, and Chinese EV exports are accelerating.

Related documents


Each publication available on or from our websites, such as, but not limited to webpages, reports, articles, publications, tips and helpful content, trading briefs, infographics, videos (each a “Publication”) is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or advice as to particular transactions, investments or strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in any Publication has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in any Publication is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in any Publication, or for any loss of opportunity, loss of profit, loss of production, loss of business or indirect losses, special or similar damages of any kind, even if advised of the possibility of such losses or damages.